For any underwriter or agent who’s
done a
“tenants-in-common” loan, you might want to add this
story to your
files. It gives a new definition to “halfway house”: http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?idØQ1UDG80&show_article1
In 1849 Abraham Gesner devised a
method to distill kerosene
from petroleum, thus saving more whales than Greenpeace
ever will. Up until
that time whale oil was the predominant source of
lighting and heating energy,
but it became too expensive and was replaced by
petroleum-based products. Will
the same thing happen with oil now? Although the
amount of oil in the ground
hasn’t changed much, the ability to refine the crude
oil has declined
relative to the demand for the product, so gas prices
have increased to over
$70/barrel. Ethanol is commonly mentioned as a
substitute – which is
causing problems of its own: just look at the price of
some foods!
Is the term “blood bath” over-used
and lost its
impact? "It's a blood bath," said a VP at PIMCO about
the current
market conditions. Yes, rates have crept up. Yes,
property values have gone
down in some over-inflated, speculative areas of the
nation, and the national
median home price may have its first annual decline
since the
1930’s. Yes, some portions of the economy are slower
than others:
confidence among homebuilders fell in June to the lowest
since February 1991,
according to the National Association of Home
Builders/Wells Fargo index. But
overall consumer confidence is stable, rates are still
low by historical
standards, and property values in many parts of the US
are constant or rising.
Speaking of which, in a move that
surprised no one and
didn’t move the markets too much yesterday, the
Federal Open Market
Committee (FOMC) decided to keep its target for the
federal funds rate at
5.25%. Economic growth is “moderate”, despite the
housing
market, and the Fed feels that the economy seems likely
to continue to expand
at a moderate pace. So, growth is rebounding after a
slowdown earlier in the
year, while inflation has eased from its level in
February, which matched a
four-year high, and rates are on hold. We started off
with a 10-yr yielding
5.09% this morning, and after Personal Income (+.4%) and
Personal Consumption
(+.5%) were released, it went to 5.07%. Mortgage
prices are a touch better.
Ahead of us we still have the Chicago Purchasing
Manager’s survey, Construction
Spending, and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.
If you’re looking for some good
summer reading, check
out “Deep in Debt” by Owen A. Lott. After that I am
going to read
“Where are the Animals?” by Darin DeBarn. Have a good
weekend!