Six loan agents were playing poker in
the condo clubhouse
when one of them loses $500 on a single hand, clutches
his chest and
drops dead at the table. Showing respect for their
fallen comrade,
the other five agents continue the game while standing.
Another guy looks around and asks, "So, who's gonna go
tell his
wife?"
They cut the cards to decide. One of them picks the two
of
clubs and has to carry the bad news. They all advise him
to
be discreet, be gentle, don't make a bad situation
any worse.
"Discreet? I'm the most discreet person you'll ever
meet. Discretion is my
middle name. Leave it to me to do it with class."
So he goes to the dead agent's condo and knocks on the
door. A
woman yells from behind the door, "What do you want?"
He yells back..."Your husband just lost $500 in a poker
game and he's
afraid to come home. He needs some more money."
"Tell him to drop dead!" yells the wife.
"OK."
Bankers don’t just need lower rates
or better poker
hands, they need liquidity from investors and
warehouse lenders, stable home
prices, and tighter/normal spreads on jumbo product.
All of these have
been hard to come by, but we are seeing some light at
the end of the proverbial
tunnel. Jumbo spreads (which impact their
prices) are still
too wide, although they seemed to have reached a bottom
in spite of jumbo
securitization being non-existent and conduits holding
them in their portfolio.
Two Federal Reserve Bank presidents (Janet Yellen and
Dennis Lockhart)
suggested that the U.S.
economy is weakening after the labor market shrank in
August, which will lead
to lower rates, but that the housing market shows no
sign of recovery. Rates
have improved, as have prices, as investors
interpreted their remarks as
signaling an interest-rate cut next week is a sure
thing. It is pretty much
agreed that there's not much to lose for the Fed in
cutting rates next week,
but there's potentially a lot to lose if they don't cut
rates.
When the employment data was released
last Friday, it became
apparent that the Fed can now save face and lower rates
not because the markets
are bullying them into it but because it appears that
the economic situation is
much more dire than anyone has anticipated or even fully
conceived. The
lowering of interest rates to levels that will enable
many borrowers to
refinance at manageable rates and terms is what can help
and needs to occur
quickly. This morning’s Trade Deficit had no impact on
any of this
thinking, as it came in about as expected at roughly $59
billion.
The New York Post reported that
Countrywide is putting
together another multi-billion dollar bailout plan, this
time with Goldman
Sachs or JP Morgan instead of BofA, as the lender
continues to struggle amid
the global credit crunch and declines in the housing
market. “Sources”,
according to the Post, say that a final deal could be
announced by the end of
the month. "Countrywide is in desperate need of cash
right now to continue
funding mortgages and the credit markets are still
largely closed to
them," said one source familiar with the situation.