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Nov. 14, 2007: Mortgages: Lesson 3 of 5 on MI, CW volume plunge, HR 3915, and why aren't mortgage prices improving?
Rob Chrisman
PMI announced that
effective December 1st they will no
longer insure loans for borrowers with FICO scores
below 575, regardless
of the LTV or AUS (automated underwriting system)
decision.
Can the seller of a house get
involved in MI? Below 90% LTV
seller concessions can be up to 6%, or 3% above
90%LTV, and usually these are a
one-time payment. Split
premium product takes a seller concession to buy-down
the monthly MI, and it
needs to be in an escrow account - the problem with a
split premium is not many
investors will buy it, thus making it unpopular among
lenders. What are the
benefits of Single Premium MI? It is generally
considered less expensive, there
is no monthly MI payment, no need for a 2nd, payment
stability (Loan/MI does
not adjust), it can provide single monthly savings, it
is tax deductible, and
if the borrower sells the home, any unused portion of
the premium is refunded.
What mortgage insurance might apply
to a high-cost area?
Most believe that lender-paid MI is “the way to go”.
Since the single
premium (“OneTime”) MI is refundable the borrower
would likely be
eligible for a significant refund depending on when
the borrower plans on
refinancing. Lender-paid MI is not refundable, but the
interest is tax
deductible regardless of AGI, and is often a less
expensive option. Agents
should run a comparison: both are options with
different benefits.
- Bill
Beckman, the president of CitiMortgage, sent
out a letter stating that “…at CitiMortgage we
continue to focus on growing profitable share
through a balanced sourcing model via Correspondent,
Wholesale and Retail channels….We continue to be a
leader and supporter of the mortgage banking
community by supporting and promoting the long-term
health and viability of the mortgage lending
community….Our acquisition of ABN AMRO Mortgage
Group/InterFirst earlier this year, year-to-date
Citi maintains its #3 market share in both
originations and servicing, our continued support of
non-conforming and non-prime products...”
- From the
LA Times: Countrywide said its monthly mortgage
volume fell 48% in October from a year earlier
as it all but stopped making sub-prime loans and
sharply cut back on home equity lines of credit.
Meanwhile, delinquencies on the mortgages for which
Calabasas-based Countrywide handles the billing and
other services continued to mount, and their stock
is down 68% this year. CW funded $22 billion in home
loans last month, down from $41.9 billion a year
earlier but up 4% from September's $21.2 billion. Countrywide
funded just $3.2 billion in mortgages through loan
brokers last month, a startling 57% decline
from the level of a year earlier.
- In
addition, CW’s Home Equity group eliminated the
reduced doc option above 80% CLTV, entirely
eliminated CLTV’s above 90%, and disbanded all ARM
subprime lending.
What is the update on HR 3915? The
legislation that would
place new restrictions on the origination and
securitization of mortgages is
likely to pass the House later this week. The bill
clearly has enough support
to pass this chamber, especially after several
provisions were modified in
order to build broader support. That said, such
legislation is likely to meet
resistance in the Senate when it comes up sometime
next year. “First,
provisions to make securitizers liable for abusive
loans in their pools may
still face resistance in the Senate despite recent
modifications. Second,
strict loan criteria are likely to create friction as
well. Given that
foreclosures are likely to continue rising into 2008
as subprime ARM resets continue,
we see a fair chance that political pressure will
build to enact new lending
restrictions, but once the House passes its bill this
week, we may not see much
further movement for a while.” Interestingly, many
banks and lenders
want to see the yield spread premium eliminated and
have been lobbying
legislators to get rid of it for years. That
would harm the mortgage
brokerage industry, to say the least. Expect lawsuits
to be swift and
plentiful, should it pass the House, then the Senate,
and then be signed into
law. Obviously mortgage brokers are not entirely to
blame for this crisis
– how about the rating agencies, investors, etc.?
Treasury rates have dropped
dramatically, but mortgage
prices have not followed. Today the
10-yr is at 4.29% yet
conforming rates are still in the low 6’s (unchanged
so far today).
Something similar happened 5 years ago, when the Fed
began lowering rates in
spite of no one having a good sense for where rates
were heading. When
uncertainty is present, investors require a greater
relative yield to
compensate for prepayment risk. “Is the loan I
buy now for
102 going to pay off in 4 months?” Until there is
better consensus about
rates, or things stabilize, expect the same issue to
exist. Our flat yield
curve has certainly gone away: the spread between a
2-yr and a 10-yr Treasury
security is over .75%, whereas a year ago it was less
than .12%. Today’s
economic news pushed Treasury rates slightly higher:
the Producer Price
Index was +.1%, better than expected, but
year-over-year it was +6.1%. Retail
Sales were +.2%, ex-auto +.2%.
A man in South Carolina
had a flat tire, pulled off on the side of
the road, and proceeded to put a bouquet of flowers in
front of the car and one
behind it. Then he got back in the car to wait.
A passerby studied the scene as he drove by and was so
curious he turned around
and went back. He asked the fellow what the problem
was. The man replied,
“I have a flat tire.”
The passerby asked, “But what's with the flowers?”
The man responded, “When you break down they tell you
to put flares in
the front and flares in the back! I never did
understand it neither.”
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