Q. Half of all Americans live
within 50 miles of what?
(Answer below)
I don’t have the document, but I
glanced at a report
over the weekend that one analyst believed the
reason why Countrywide’s
stock has been hit so hard is that they were rumored
to be on the forefront of
buying 2nds behind Neg Am 1sts last year. And in
some parts of the country,
with property values declining, any company owning a
second mortgage behind a
negatively amortizing 1st might find themselves with
large losses that may not
be included in their loss provisions.
On top of that, UNITE HERE, a
national labor union
representing 450,000 workers in apparel, hotel,
restaurant, and retail
industries, launched a campaign Monday against
Countrywide calling on members
and other consumers to boycott the mortgage
lender's banking subsidiary
until it guarantees it won't foreclose on borrowers
who have fallen behind on
adjustable rate loans. Union leadership has asked
consumers not to make
deposits at Countrywide Bank and to send e-mails to
the company demanding
assurances it won't foreclose on borrowers with
mortgages that reset last year
and this year.
Nat City sent a
notice to
their brokers saying, “Effectively immediately, no
new registrations
will be permitted under any Non-Conforming product
due to negative
Secondary Marketing. We will provide more details
as they become
available. Please contact your account executive if
you have any
questions.”
H&R
Block announced that the
sale of Option One Mortgage to Cerberus
Capital has been halted, and
that Option One will cease their origination
activities.
Is anyone interested in an ARM
loan? Some folks are, and it
will be wise of them to look at two important yields
that are out there. The
last time the spread between LIBOR (1 month LIBOR is
5.25%) and Treasury Bills
(3 month T-Bill is 3.02%) was this wide was
reportedly just prior to the 1987
crash. LIBOR, remember, is what banks lend to each
other, and the high yield
suggests that they don’t want to loan any money out
to other banks.
Treasury yields are guaranteed by the US
government, with no credit risk.
The market has seen a flight to quality as we
near year-end, and the high
yields suggest that many are “hunkering down” and
demanding a high
risk premium for lending money to institutions
that may have large
mortgage-related losses on their books.
We saw a nice improvement
yesterday after the ISM
Manufacturing index fell to 50.8, just above
the boom/bust threshold
of 50. There is no news today, but in the near-term
we have the
unemployment data on Friday, and the Fed’s meeting
next week. The
market is pricing in a 60% chance of another 25
basis point rate cut and a 54%
chance of a 50 basis point cut. Another tool
at their disposal is a
reduction in the Discount Rate, as we saw some
months ago. The bond and equity
markets enjoyed a rally this past week as the
prospects for these rate cuts
increased. Both Chair and Vice Chair of the Fed
conceded that events since the
last FOMC meeting have signaled that the risks to
economic growth and price stability
are in fact not balanced and that they will have to
act to help the ailing
credit and housing markets. Unfortunately more
economists and analysts are
joining the ranks of those that think that we will
experience a recession in
the near future including us, and assistance may
come in the form of lower
short-term rates.
Credit reporting agency Equifax
Inc. unveiled its new ARM
Predictor, which will let members of the banking and
financial services
industry know the likelihood that someone seeking
credit might have a mortgage
with an adjustable rather than fixed rate. Of course
consumer advocates fear
the new rating system will spook lenders and hurt
borrowers. TransUnion does
not have a scoring system that identifies borrowers
who might have adjustable
rate mortgages, although they are working on one.
Snow White received a camera as a gift. She happily
took pictures of the Dwarfs
and their surroundings. When she finished her first
batch she took the
film to be developed.
After a week or so she went to
get the finished photos. The
clerk said the photos were not back from the
processor.
Needless to say, she was disappointed and started to
cry.
The clerk, trying to console her, said, "Don't
worry, someday your
prints will come".
A. Their birthplace