Last night I heard my
daughter saying her prayers.
“Dear God, please send clothes for all those poor ladies in Daddy's
computer. Amen.”
One trader said,
“Mortgages are getting banged like a
screen door in a hurricane.” I assume that he was talking about
mortgages
and bond prices in general. Anyone who has been in this business for
any length
of time has seen rates shoot up, or rates shoot down, dramatically in
the space
of a few days. Personally, and I have been wrong before, I think that
we have
seen the lows in rates. The US Government keeps borrowing, and there
are signs
that the economy is starting to revive in some areas. I don’t know
why
rates would go back down too far unless the economy deteriorates more.
There are always dips as rates move back down, but I see the trend
higher. But
like I said, I have been wrong before. But the U.S. budget deficit is
rising due
to a combination of weak tax receipts and sharply increased spending,
balanced
against of deflation, weak demand, and slow global growth. What a
market!
What made bond prices
drop, and rates go up, yesterday,
hitting 6-month highs? I guess “More sellers than buyers” probably
won’t cut it. While there was one specific news item, like
unemployment, the
weight of the Treasury auctions, and the debt being issued in general
by the US
Government, is one of the primary reasons. And will there be demand
from
buyers of our debt, like China?
And once the yield on the 10-yr broke through the technical support
level of
3.50%, and then 3.60%, well, suddenly every lender starting selling
their
production and pipelines. In addition, that brought on over $9 billion
in
servicer selling on top of the mortgage banker selling, and once again
we are
reminded that the markets are bigger than the Fed. Remember that if
rates go
up, mortgages are likely to stay on the books of servicers for a
longer, unexpected,
period of time, and so often portfolio managers will sell Treasury
securities
to shorten their duration.
And as
we know, when rates shoot up,
initially locks pour in, and then things dry up and agents/brokers
start
reviewing extension policies. And non-depository mortgage banks worry
about
squeezing fundings through on slim warehouse lines. Rates
moved up somewhat late last week, and mortgage applications in the U.S.
declined last week. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of
applications dropped 14%, with the refinancing gauge down 19% and the
purchase
index up 1%. For news yesterday we also had a report from the National
Association of Realtors showing that home sales rose 2.9% in April.
About 45%
of the in April sales were foreclosures and short sales. And the median
price
for an existing home last month was $170,200, down 15.4% from $201,300
in April
2008. After the $40 billion in 2-year notes Tuesday, and the $35
billion in
5-year notes yesterday, we have another $26 billion in 7-year notes
today
bringing this week's total to $101 billion.
This morning we actually
have some data upon which to chew.
(See? You can avoid ending a sentence in a preposition.) Durable
Goods in
April jumped more than forecast as a rebound in auto demand and
surge in defense
spending overshadowed declines in business equipment. The 1.9% increase
reported by the Commerce Department was the largest since December
2007, and
followed a revised 2.1 percent drop in March that was more than twice
as large
as previously estimated. Jobless Claims dropped by 13,000 to
623,000,
although the number of people collecting unemployment insurance rose to
a
record in the prior week for the 17th straight time, reflecting
restrained
hiring. And later this morning we’ll see New Home Sales. After the
news we find the yield on the 10-yr up to 3.64% and mortgage prices
slightly
worse, again, from yesterday afternoon.
What programs are they
offering in the UK?
Lloyds TSB, among others,
offers borrowers a 95% mortgage IF friends or relatives of the borrower
hold
savings worth 20% of the property's value in a special account with the
bank. The
so-called Lend a Hand mortgage offers first-time buyers with just a 5%
deposit
a three-year fixed rate of 4.39% while the savers have their money tied
up for
3 ½ years they can earn a fixed rate of interest of 3.5%. If the
borrower fails
to meet mortgage repayments there is a legally binding agreement which
allows
the bank to use the savings to make up any shortfall. However, at the
end of
the three-year deal if the homeowner's loan-to-value (LTV) ratio has
fallen to
90% as a result of mortgage repayments and rising house prices, the
borrower
can operate their mortgage independently without the looming legal
charge. One
benefit is that The deal enables parents and other family members to
help out
their children without losing control of their savings by locking them
up in a
house deposit.
Wells Fargo’s wholesale
group announced
that as of June 1, the maximum LTV for High Balance conforming loans in
California,
which
require borrower or lender paid MI, will be 85% instead of 90%.
GMAC’s correspondent
group announced that, also
effective June 1st, they will expand their policy on fee caps for
Brokers and
Table Funders to all Correspondent clients originating loans through
third
party brokers. The revised policy will
place a limit on total
broker compensation. “On loans originated through a third party Broker,
including table-funded loans, the Broker may not receive
compensation that exceeds the following: If the loan amount is less
than or
equal to $500,000, 4.5% of the loan amount; If the loan amount is
greater than
$500,000, the greater of: 2% of the loan amount; or $22,500. The limit
includes
the sum of all fees paid by the Borrower to the Broker and any fees
paid
by the Lender to the Broker, such as a yield spread premium. “ GMAC
goes on to say that “On loans originated through a third party Broker,
including table-funded loans, the Broker may receive all or part of
their
compensation directly from the Lender in the form of a yield spread
premium
based on the interest rate agreed to between the Borrower and
the Broker. The yield spread premium may not exceed 3% of
the loan amount. The yield spread premium must be disclosed on the
Good Faith Estimate and the HUD-1 Settlement Statement in accordance
with
federal law.”
GMAC also changed the
minimum credit score requirements for
certain programs. For AUS Approve/Accept
decision
loans, a minimum score of 600 is required. For AUS Refer Decision or
Manual
Underwrite, a 620 score is required, as it is for Credit Qualifying
Streamline
Refinance (Non-GM to GM) loans. (For GM to GM loans, a minimum of 580
is
required.)
(Warning: R-rated -
please don’t read if easily
offended.)
As men age, we start
seeing more of the medical world, which
nowadays seems to include an increasing number of women as our
physicians and
therapists. And in my case, a new urologist.
My family doctor recently
referred me to a
just-out-of-medical-school female urologist. I saw her yesterday, and
she's
absolutely drop-dead gorgeous as well as unbelievably sexy.
She told me that I must
stop playing with myself.
I asked her why.
She said, "Because I'm
trying to examine you..."
Rob
(For archived
commentaries, check www.robchrisman.com,
or to subscribe write to rchrisman@robchrisman.com)