Sep. 26, 2011: New reasons for slow refi's; regulators lacking manpower; MISMO back to MBA; lenders/investors dealing with August locks
Rob Chrisman
Have
you ever heard of the Federal Financial Institutions Examination
Council? I must admit that I hadn't, until it released its
latest report which includes statistics on the number of active,
licensed mortgage lenders. To no one’s surprise the number is
down for the fourth year in a row. In 2006 there are nearly
9,000, and now there are less than 8,000 – and now folks are
saying, "Less competition rarely, if ever, benefits the
consumer." You can read the entire report at http://www.ffiec.gov/press/pr092211.htm.
KB
Home
announced earnings for the 3rd quarter: a loss of
almost $10 million versus a loss of $1.4 million a year earlier.
These results, for its quarter that ended in August, include
$1.2 million in charges for inventory impairments and land
option contract abandonments, revenue down 27%, and a drop of
over 30% in home deliveries (although the average sales price
was up 6%).
Fortress
Investment Group owns Nationstar, and it seems it is the front
runner for acquiring Bank of America's correspondent channel.
Critics are asking, "Given what makes up a 'correspondent
channel,' what will Fortress be buying, exactly, since it seems
that many in that unit have either left or are actively seeking
employment elsewhere?" The latest is at: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/23/us-bankofamerica-correspondent-idUSTRE78M78720110923.
As
it continues to shed assets and manpower, BofA has reached an
agreement to sell approximately $880 million of commercial
mortgages at a discount of 20% to 25% off the face value.
The buyer is a joint venture of Square Mile Capital Management
LLC, Invesco Ltd. and a fund managed by Canyon Capital Realty
Advisors LLC. The deal, which includes a mix of performing and
nonperforming loans tied to 32 properties, ranks among the
biggest commercial mortgage portfolio sales this year.
Bank
closings
picked up on Friday, with the Bank of the Commonwealth (VA)
going to Southern Bank
and Trust Company (here in the Carolinas), and out in
California Citizens Bank of Northern California going to Tri Counties Bank.
These are government-sponsored closures, but we’ve all heard of
"too big to fail," but what about "too big to merge?" The Independent Community
Bankers of America asked federal regulators to launch a
moratorium on bank mergers and acquisitions involving
financial firms with $100 billion or more in assets. (This
would put a crimp into the Capital One-ING Direct USA deal
temporarily.) Community bankers believe that new mergers and
acquisitions are adding risk to an already shaky financial
system while concentrating power in larger institutions that
effectively cut into the market share and opportunities for
smaller institutions – basically that Dodd-Frank is not having
its intended consequences. Imagine that.
Investors
in mortgage-backed securities are keenly interested in the
prepayment speeds of new and old securities –
why would someone pay a 3 point premium for a loan that is going
to pay off in 4 months? Analysts expect that prepayment speeds
across the various non-agency sectors should increase as
mortgage rates continue to go lower. In particular, fixed-rate
and longer resetting prime mortgages should be the most
responsive to the lower rate environment as a relatively higher
percentage of borrowers are “refinance-eligible” in those
sectors. In addition, some jumbo prime borrowers will have a
significant refinance incentive for the first time as the
mortgage rate reached historically low levels, and these
borrowers should be most responsive to lower mortgage rates.
Some borrowers have tried to fund high-balance loans prior to
the 10/1 loan limit date, and others are attracted to the
overall level of jumbo rates with a 4% handle, low 3’s for a 5/1
ARM. Since closing costs have increased, most now assume that a
borrower currently needs at least a 75 basis point rate
incentive to refinance - this population has more than doubled
since the first quarter. Approximately 10% of outstanding prime
fixed and longer-reset hybrid borrowers have become newly
refinanceable from a rate perspective, and are refi-eligible
according to CLTV and payment history criteria. One should
expect that these borrowers should be most responsive to the
lower rate environment, even with tighter underwriting
(especially on 5/1 products).
The
latest move by the Fed – to reinvest mortgage payoffs back into
mortgages – has analysts racing back to their calculators. (I
still have my 25-yr old 12-C!) In recent years the Fed has
mostly been interested in owning conventional securities (Fannie
& Freddie) and thus investors see less demand for Ginnie Mae
production backed by FHA & VA loans. But a good percentage
of GNMA’s come from new home sales, which show few signs of
gearing up. So if the supply is poor, and demand holds steady,
the prices should do just fine. And overall, even though
the 10-yr yield has really dropped, and mortgage rates have as
well, the MBA refinancing index has consistently surprised to
the downside – folks just aren’t rushing in to refi.
Barclays
notes
that, “While the main reasons for this benign refinancing
activity have been well documented, notably, rep and warranty
risk, tight underwriting standards, declining HPA, friction in
the HARP program, and the absence of alternative credit in the
non-agency market, two new factors have emerged, which we
believe play an integral role in explaining the reduced
refinancing activity. First, borrowers refinancing their
home seem to be getting a higher mortgage rate than those
purchasing a home. This behavior has been observed for
most originators and is the most pronounced for the largest
originators including Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells
Fargo. Second, even though primary-secondary spreads seem
tighter this time, originator
margins are at their widest, suggesting that originator
capacity is still limited, and that borrowers are not
obtaining as low a mortgage rate as they would if capacity
were not an issue.”
For the first time in seven quarters the level of outstanding
commercial/multifamily mortgage debt grew in the U.S according
to information released by the MBA. The Association said that
total debt rose $3.5 billion (0.1%) in the second quarter of
2011 to a total of $2.4 trillion. The last time total debt
increased was in the third quarter of 2009. Anyone who loves big
numbers should check it out at: http://www.mbaa.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/77967.htm.
While
we’re on the MBA, it and MERSCORP (parent of MERS) announced
that management of the Mortgage Industry Standards Maintenance
Organization (MISMO) will transfer to MBA on December 1.
Folks I spoke with believe that it is for the best at this
point, and the rationale makes sense: http://www.mbaa.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/77997.htm.
Franklin
American
spread the word to clients that, “Mandatory Trades for USDA
products are now available…USDA loans cannot be comingled with
other loan products in a trade, but aside from that all other
mandatory delivery rules and policies apply.”
With
the low rates come renewed updates on renegotiation policies. Stearns notes, “Float
downs must lower the interest rate to the Borrower and
Compensation cannot be increased regardless of whether the
Broker is keeping it or passing it along to the Borrower. Loans
may be relocked for a one-time maximum of 14 days. Loans must be
ready to have docs drawn. Pricing will be renegotiated based on
the original lock term and will use the pricing for that lock
term with the following adjustments (to lower the rate .125% to
.25% the charge will be the original lock term pricing minus .50
pt., to lower the rate .375% the charge will be the original
lock term pricing minus .625 pt., to lower the rate .500% the
charge will be the original lock term pricing minus .875 pt.).
Any requests beyond a rate reduction cap will be handled on a
case-by-case basis. Float downs are not allowed on FHA
Streamlines, Jumbo, ARM or Specialty Product programs.” And so
on – check its bulletin for exact details and info on
extensions.
Interbank's VP
of Operations sent out this note to brokers on Friday: "We are
incredibly behind in all team inboxes, as well as with condition
uploads; Therefore, I have decided it is much more important to
get the conditions uploaded as fast as possible so they can be
cleared over the weekend. We have pulled the LCs off the
mailboxes, and are having them help with condition uploads. The
mailboxes will continue to be behind. I’m going to put a message
on the portal that we are behind in our responses, if their
problem is of a CRITICAL nature (i.e. is a Temporary High
Balance Loan, or is a purchase with a lock expiring) that cannot
wait until Monday (when we expect to be caught up), then they
must contact their AE for assistance.”
ClearPoint
Funding
introduced its, “45 for 30 for New Locked Purchase Transactions
- receive a free 15 day extension on your 30 day pricing after
the loan is locked. The Fine Print: Applies to new locks
only!!! Excludes all arm loans and fixed Jumbo loans. Promotion
valid through the end of October."
Citi released their
periodic (every 3 or 4 weeks) four pages of DU, LP, FHA, and VA
overlays. "In order to reduce the risk of the loans we purchase,
Citi has credit overlays in our policy in addition to agency
guidelines. The attached Credit Overlays listing provides a
summary of these overlays to help you better understand them.
For complete product guidelines, please refer to the
Correspondent Manual."
Later
this morning we’ll have new home sales numbers that are expected
to remain anemic in August at around 295,000 units on an
annualized basis (despite record-low 30-yr mortgage rates!). New
home sales have been slowing since April, but remain slightly
above the August 2010 low of 278,000 units. New home sales have
never really recovered from the hangover of the first-time
homebuyers’ tax credit.
Looking
ahead for the week, as originators along the coasts rush to
close high balance loans, we have some Case-Shiller numbers
tomorrow along with Consumer Confidence, Durable Good on
Wednesday, Jobless Claims, GDP (the 3rd look at the 2nd
quarter), and Pending Home Sales Thursday, and then Personal
Income, Consumption, and the Chicago PMI on Friday. In the very
early going, rates are
up slightly (10-yr at 1.85% versus the 1.81% at Friday’s
close) and MBS prices appear to be slightly worse.
When
our lawn mower broke and wouldn't run, my wife kept hinting to
me that I should get it fixed. But, somehow I always had
something else to take care of first, the shed, the boat, making
beer… always something more important to me. Finally she thought
of a clever way to make her point.
When I arrived home one day, I found her seated in the tall
grass, busily snipping away with a tiny pair of sewing scissors.
I watched silently for a short time and then went into the
house. I was gone only a minute, and when I came out again I
handed her a toothbrush. I said, "When you finish cutting the
grass, you might as well sweep the driveway."
The doctors say I will walk again, but I will always have
a limp.
If you're interested,
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