Nov. 4, 2011: Allied & Bella Homes in the spotlight; Freddie asks for $6 billion; mixed views on commercial sector
Rob Chrisman
Take
your pick: this is really cool, really irritating, or merely
mesmerizing. But don't forget to change your clocks this
weekend: ImportMedia/swf/handclock.swf.
I think that I finally figured out Europe. When we have...
The rumors of a sovereign debt deal, stocks rally but U.S. rates
go up.
The rumors turn out to be false, stocks sell off but rates
improve.
The news of a deal that is struck on sovereign debt, stocks
rally but U.S. rates go up.
A deal means that the Greeks (substitute any country) will vote
on whether or not their government should spend less and tax
more, stocks sell off but rates improve.
Under mounting pressures, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou
agreed to forgo a referendum on the Eurozone’s rescue program.
The plan had left Papandreou's government in doubt as it braces
for a confidence vote, although cancellation of the
referendum eased fears that Greece will immediately exit the
euro zone. Remember, Libertarians will tell you that the
government cannot give to anybody anything that the government
does not first take from somebody else. Not only that, but we
had the unemployment data this morning – page down once or twice
for news on that.
LO
compensation remains an issue.
“I still remain scared of how many lenders have loan officers
out there who still have an interest in upselling rate and
maximizing premium pricing. They’re still asking their
Secondary Departments, “Should I lock today or wait until
tomorrow?” Talk about a red flag! Others have taken a micro
approach with dozens of comp structures based on LO and/or
origination source (referral versus marketing lead). The rules
and security measures must be fully thought and implement in a
consistent manner. I am finding that overages (above par
pricing) certainly remain an area of exposure. To whom does
premium pricing belong? If it’s not passed along as a lender
credit, it belongs to the bank – and what LO is looking to sell
pricing to fatten managements P&L and not their own? This
all spells trouble if, or when, the regulators come knocking on
the door with both independent mortgage bankers and community
banks. The problem here is that most, if not all, of these
lenders are under the impression they’re in compliance.
Matchbox has been working with bankers to analyze how bankers
have implemented their compensation plans and eliminate the
areas of exposure.” Contact Frank Fiore at ffiore@matchboxllc.com
if you'd like to have your compensation plans reviewed.
FHFA
Director
DeMarco's latest testimony on the GSE's can be found at http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/22744/DeMarcoTestimony1132011.pdf.
This is timely, since Freddie
Mac reported a $4.4 billion loss for the third quarter and
said it will seek $6 billion from the U.S. Treasury Department.
For those playing along at home, the request brings Freddie
Mac's total Treasury draw to $72.2 billion although it has
returned $14.9 billion of that money to taxpayers in the form of
dividend payments to the government (including $1.6 billion in
the 3rd quarter). And lower rates don’t help
everyone: Freddie Mac reported $4.8 billion in derivative losses
due to declining interest rates.
Things
are a little rosier in the commercial and multi-family sector.
The MBA reports that in the 3rd quarter loan
originations came in 98% higher than during the same period
last year and 10% higher than the second quarter.
“Mortgage originations by life company portfolios hit another
new record in the third quarter,” said MBA Vice President of
Commercial Real Estate Research Jamie Woodwell. “Lending by bank
portfolios and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac also picked-up.
Hotels, retail properties, office space, multifamily,
industrial, etc. are all included in the numbers. To view the
report, visit the following Web link: http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Research/CommercialOriginations/3Q11CMFOriginationsSurvey.pdf.
Barclays
Capital
noted that, “The survey numbers support our view that
originations will continue to increase in the near term, though
growth will be sluggish and concentrated outside the CMBS
conduit space. Since the quality of collateral financed by the
agencies, banks and insurance companies is higher, we expect the
tier 1 properties to be well bid, while properties in secondary
and tertiary markets could face difficulties finding avenues to
refinance, given the slowdown in conduit issuance.”
But
another item, generated from the Real Estate Roundtable,
indicated that commercial
real estate executives appear to have cut back their
expectations on economic conditions, citing worries about
the pace of recovery and other concerns. “The Roundtable’s
latest Sentiment Index fell for the second consecutive quarter
to its lowest point since fall 2009. After rising slightly at
the beginning of the year (77 out of 100), the index fell to 69
in the third quarter and to 59 in the latest survey. Respondents
cited concerns about the pace of economic recovery; Washington's
ability to address fiscal and tax policy challenges; new
regulatory requirements; and the long-term European debt
situation as negative factors.
When
in doubt, file a lawsuit. Allied Home Mortgage sued
HUD for suspending the firm’s ability to write FHA insured
home loans. Allied and James C. Hodge, founder and chief
executive officer of the Houston-based firm claimed last year
that it was the biggest closely held mortgage broker in the
U.S., and HUD’s move earlier this week wipes out 70% of its
business.
I
received several e-mails on Allied's HUD/FHA suspension - none
of them pro-Allied, and in fact a few pointed out HUD’s
neglect.
Here is a sample: "The principals at Allied will get theirs -
and deservedly so. But I hope a bright, searing light shines on
the folks at HUD/FHA as well. Allied's horrific misuse of the
FHA program hasn't been a secret. This has gone on for years
and anyone with a computer could watch the train wreck via their
compare ratio. Where were the folks at HUD/FHA? Why did they
let this go on and on? Maybe a prosecutor or two should sue a
few of those folks for gross dereliction of duty and failure to
mitigate taxpayer damages. And what makes this worse? There are
other Allied's out there - just check the compare ratios."
David
Oldenburg,
author and the CEO of California
Seller
Realty, writes, "In my new book I talk extensively about
real estate "options", "mortgage assignments", "rent-to-owns"
etc... Here is what I think Bella is doing because I work with
some bankruptcy attorneys. Notice that Bella says, "If you
qualify". I am guessing they are looking for situations where
they can wipe out the second mortgage or offer them far less
than what they are owed. They may even be doing this with the
first as well, kinda like a short sale but a direct payout by
them. There are lots of investors seeking these high-rent
situations right now because of the yield on their money. This
is easily accomplished because with a lease-option or rent to
own, the payments can be much higher for the same priced
property.”
Mr. Oldenburg continues, "Many of these so-called people who are
"helping" home buyers and sellers are simply using it as a tool
to get more calls, more leads that lead to other business. Think
about it... If you are an upside-down owner and you watch that
Bella video you are going to be all over it. They can easily
come back later and say you do not qualify but they can handle
your short sale. My guess is the ONLY people who qualify are the
ones that have an ideal situation where they can negotiate or
get rid of some of the mortgage debt and then offer a lower
payment to the original seller. I can guarantee there is never a
situation where Bella is buying a home and making payments that
are higher than what they are receiving!"
And
lastly, "Please look more into the Bella Homes business plan. I
have been approached by several people about this program – we
refuse to get involved. Search for ‘Mortgage Assignment Program’
and you will find hundreds of sites talking about how to sell
homes underwater homes to buyers who may never qualify. For
example, this one: http://mortgageassignmentprofiting.com/.
A
representative shows an underwater house to a buyer with bad
credit. The seller can't sell and the buyer can't obtain
financing. The buyer signs a contract with the seller with a
clause that it is subject to the lender assigning the mortgage
to the buyer. I have also heard of where they quit claim the
deed to the buyer and then the buyer just starts making
payments. Then they call the bank and tell them that they are
the new owners. The bank is upside down, so they assign the
loan? Smells like a scam to me.”
If
you’d like to learn more about FHA loan origination and
processing, you may want to check out a webinar on
Tuesday, November 8th. It is hosted by Fairway Wholesale Lending,
and doesn’t cost anything: https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/866264266.
“This is an excellent training course for originators and
processors with little to no FHA lending experience or with
previous FHA experience but needing a refresher, or
owner/mangers considering FHA lending as an additional product
offering.” (This is Part 1; Part 2 is on Thursday.) Write to Bob
Sweeney with any questions: bob.sweeney46@yahoo.com.
Yesterday
was
not a great day for the U.S. fixed-income markets due to an
announced 25 basis point cut in the ECB's benchmark rate to
1.25%. Reuters noted that the 10-year Treasury notes ended lower
by 17/32nds (2.07%)…In MBS, lower coupons struggled from the
start due to a bout of late day selling and supply yesterday,
with expectations of more supply as Treasuries opened lower.
Mortgage banker selling appears to have remained in the $1.5 to
$2.0 billion area today with supply consisting primarily in 3.5%
coupons.” Most rate-sheet mortgage prices worsened slightly.
You’ll
see the same thing today, as rates are slightly higher after a
decent Nonfarm Payrolls report for October showed a pickup of
80k jobs, back-month revisions higher, and the unemployment rate
dropping to 9.0%. The
10-yr slid up to 2.10% and MBS prices are worse by about .125.
Confucius
didn’t
say:
Man
who wants pretty nurse must be patient.
Passionate kiss, like spider web, leads to undoing of fly.
Better to be pissed off than pissed on.
Lady who goes camping must beware of evil intent.
Squirrel who runs up woman’s leg will not find nuts.
Man who leaps off cliff jumps to conclusion.
Man who runs in front of car gets tired; man who runs behind car
gets exhausted.
If you're interested, visit my twice-a-month blog at the
STRATMOR Group web site located at