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Jan. 12, 2012: Mortgage jobs; insight from mortgage trader lingo; CFPB to sharpen claws on PHH? chatter on goals for F&F
Rob Chrisman
Did
you know that dolphins are so smart that within 2 weeks of being
in captivity they can train a human to stand on the edge of a
pool and give them fish? There are a lot of smart mortgage
traders working at the broker-dealers. Here is a very
interesting piece on how Wall Street MBS traders and analysts
think. I included nearly the entire research write-up here,
leaving the firm off of it, as it touches on many subjects that
originators, Realtors, whoever, don't think about very often,
but this type of
quantitative analysis directly impacts rate sheet pricing:
"Although dollar prices of Fannie 3.0’s (these
securities would include 3.25% and higher mortgages) have
skyrocketed over the past few days, there has been very limited
originator selling of this coupon. Below we try to estimate at
what price spread level of Fannie 3.5s/3.0s swap, originators
should have an economic incentive to move new issuance into
Fannie 3.0s from Fannie 3.5s. Let us say that a lender has
originated $100 mortgages at 3.9% mortgage rate and is deciding
between securitizing them in FN 3.0s or FN 3.5s. He has got two
options. A) Create $100 FN 3.0s and retain 90bp servicing
spread, B) Create $100 FN 3.5s and retain 40bp servicing spread.
At Friday's closing price levels, in Option A, he gets $101 cash
and retains 90bp servicing spread. In Option B, he gets $103.1
cash and retains 40bp servicing spread. Which one of these
options is better for him? Right now, 2010 FN 3.5s IOS is
trading at 17-02. Since the 2011 IOS should trade somewhat
better than 2010 IOS, let us assume that the 2011 3.5s IOS is
worth $19 and also that the servicing asset trades at about 15%
discount to IOS (fairly realistic assumptions). In this case,
the 50bp additional servicing in Option A versus Option B is
worth: (0.5/3.5)*(19*0.85) $2.31. Thus, the originator gains
$103.31 ($101+$2.31) by following Option A versus $103.1 by
following Option B in a completely liquid market with no
barriers to trading. In other words, as long as the FN 3.5s/3.0s
swap is below $2.31 (2-10), the originator should create FN 3.0s
instead of FN 3.5s (from a purely economic perspective) while
this swap was trading at about 2-04 at Friday's closes. Of
course, originators need
to set aside capital if they retain excess servicing - so
they may need some premium over what is indicated by economics
to move into FN 3.0s instead of FN 3.5s. And the Basel III constraints
on the contribution of MSRs to bank capital are also possibly
making originators reluctant to keep excess servicing spread
on their balance sheets at the moment.”
MetLife's
announcement
impacting 4,300 employees has roiled the lending biz. But there
are those that continue to hire. In the retail arena, mortgage
banker iServe
Residential Lending is continuing to expand its national
branching platform which is now in 20 states. The company
is a direct lender providing loan servicing, mortgage
origination, and real estate under one roof. iServe is
expanding its network of retail branches, and is looking for NMLS licensed
LO's, branch managers, and branches in order to establish
a "local branch presence, leveraging established mortgage broker
and loan officer relationships." Interested parties can visit http://www.iservelending.com/
or for more information on the Western US, contact Allen
Friedman at afriedman@iservelending.com,
and in the Eastern US contact Ken Michael at kmichael@iservelending.com.
As
mentioned yesterday, with BofA and MetLife exiting correspondent
lending, concern in
growing about PHH. S&P cut its credit rating in recent
months (“negative outlook”), and now the industry is watching
its liquidity crunch, hopefully alleviated by the 8K financial
information recently released, but perhaps more importantly the investigation by the
CFPB’s investigation into whether it failed to comply with the
Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act. A filing with the
SEC said that the bureau had opened an investigation to learn
whether the company’s mortgage insurance policies, particularly
those involving reinsurance services in exchange for premiums,
met obligations under law. PHH said in the filing that there
“can be no assurance whether or not this investigation will
result in the imposition of any penalties and fines against the
Company or its subsidiaries.” My opinion is that the
industry would rather not have another top investor wave the
white flag.
Now
that the CFPB has a director, it can officially begin to
exercise the full authorities granted to it under the
Dodd-Frank Act.
The agency announced the formal launch of its nonbank
supervision program, and will start supervising nonbanks that
until now “have largely escaped any meaningful federal
oversight,” including: residential mortgage brokers, lenders,
and servicers, payday lenders, and private student lenders
regardless of size. Expect their powers to reach into debt
collection, consumer reporting, consumer lending and related
activities, money transmitting, check cashing, and related
activities, prepaid cards, and debt relief services. In
addition, the CFPB will supervise any other nonbank covered
person that it determines is posing risks to consumers with
regard to the offering or provision of consumer financial
products or services.
Under
FHFA’s guidance, Fannie
Mae is introducing an Unemployment Forbearance program
that provides servicers the flexibility to assist borrowers who
have a financial hardship due to unemployment. Read all about
them at: https://www.efanniemae.com/sf/guides/ssg/annltrs/pdf/2012/svc1201.pdf.
Fannie
also
sent out an update on the maximum allowable
pre-foreclosure mediation fees for which attorneys in
Florida may be reimbursed as well as the maximum allowable
attorney and trustee foreclosure fees in a number of other
states. The Attorney and Trustee Foreclosure Fees exhibit on
eFannieMae.com has also been updated: https://www.efanniemae.com/sf/guides/ssg/annltrs/pdf/2012/svc1202.pdf.
Fannie
&
Freddie, who are not expected to have much done to/with them
prior to the election, which puts things out to 2013, continue
to be a focus of conversation. “Rob – according to a 2009
keynote address by James Lockhart, at that time the director of
the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), where he discussed
the housing crisis, secondary markets, and regulatory oversight,
he said the FHFA’s four stabilization strategies are to: 1.
Ensure Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Banks
provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the housing
market in a safe and sound manner; 2. Work with government
partners to reduce mortgage rates; 3. Work with the
government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) to set best practices
for the mortgage market; 4. Prevent foreclosures through
affordable modifications and refinancings. It seems to me that the government itself is
flying in the face of their own strategy - specifically items
1 and 2 - by burdening borrowers’ note rates via .10%
increases in g-fees to fund the Payroll Tax Holiday extension.”
How things change: http://www.strategicanalytics.com/pdf/RMARetailRiskConf2009.pdf.
Have
your filed your own lawsuit yet? You'd better hurry - time is
running out. The Patton
Boggs Mortgage Litigation Index reached a four-year high,
indicating a number of mortgage-related lawsuits. "The increase
in MBS litigation is partly driven by statutes of limitations on
investors’ claims," said Patrick McManemin, a partner at Patton
Boggs. "State claims against originators for alleged mishandling
of portfolios, inadequate underwriting practices and
misrepresentations regarding loan quality on the part of private
and GSE litigants can only be preserved by filing lawsuits
before claims expire."
Do
mortgage fraud suspects have the patent on hiding $70k in their
cowboy boots: http://www.sacbee.com/2012/01/10/4177879/california-suspect-guilty-in-19m.html?
He probably won’t be putting that money to work in the markets,
which have been pretty quiet. Wednesday there wasn’t much news
to drive rates, but they dropped nonetheless with the 10-yr
moving down to 1.90% and rate-sheet MBS prices improving by
.125. The Fed’s Beige Book provided another reminder of poor
state of housing market: unlike other sectors of the economy
that are showing some improvement, "activity stayed sluggish in
residential real estate markets". The report went on to say that
"extensive inventories of distressed properties were reported to
be a source of price restraint" in 1/3 of the Districts; and
"lending standards were largely unchanged across all lending
categories."
Overnight,
though,
Spain and Italy had some good news for the euro zone markets
with successful debt auctions at sharply lower borrowing costs
in 2012's first real test of appetite for debt from the euro
zone's bruised periphery. European stock markets rallied, as did
the euro. But something is not right this morning: stock futures are higher,
gold and silver are higher, copper is higher, oil is higher,
and corn & wheat prices are higher. This morning we’ve
had Jobless Claims and Retail Sales, which moved from 375k to
399k, up 24k, and up +.1%, respectively. Later, at noon CST,
we’ll have the final leg of this week's auctions with $13
billion in 30-year bonds. With these cross currents, the 10-yr and MBS prices
are nearly unchanged.
A man was walking down the street when he was accosted by a
particularly dirty and shabby-looking homeless man who asked him
for a couple of dollars for dinner.
The man took out his wallet, extracted ten dollars and asked,
"If I give you this money, will you buy some beer with it
instead of dinner?"
"No, I had to stop drinking years ago," the homeless man
replied.
"Will you use it to go fishing instead of buying food?" the man
asked.
"No, I don't waste time fishing," the homeless man said. "I need
to spend all my time trying to stay alive."
"Will you spend this on greens' fees at a golf course instead of
food?" the man asked.
"Are you NUTS!" replied the homeless man. "I haven't played golf
in 20 years!"
"Will you spend the money on a woman in the red light district
instead of food?" the man asked.
"What disease would I get for ten lousy bucks?" exclaimed the
homeless man.
"Well," said the man, "I'm not going to give you the money.
Instead, I'm going to take you home for a terrific dinner cooked
by my wife."
The homeless man was astounded. "Won't your wife be furious with
you for doing that? I know I'm dirty and I probably smell pretty
disgusting."
The man replied, "That's okay. It's important for her to see
what a man looks like after he has given up beer, fishing, golf,
and sex."
If you're interested, visit my twice-a-month blog at the
STRATMOR Group web site located at
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